Why Your 80-Year Old Self Is Your Best Coach

by Jen Ahlberg, PhD

In our last few discussions, we treated exercise like a clinical prescription. But any doctor will tell you that a prescription is only as good as the diagnosis it’s meant to treat.

Why do we exercise? Most people train for the next three months. At Astride, we train with a plan built for for the next ten, twenty, or thirty years.

To do this, we use a technique called Backcasting. Instead of looking at where you are today and trying to "get a little fitter," we start at the finish line – what a member wants to be doing 20 or 30 years down the road – and work backward.

The Reality of the "Biological Tax"

Why is Backcasting necessary? Because aging involves a mandatory "tax" on your physical systems.

• Muscle Mass: After age 30, you lose between 3% and 8% of your muscle mass per decade, a rate that accelerates significantly after 60 [1].

• Aerobic Capacity: VO2 max declines by roughly 10% per decade in healthy individuals [2].

Case Study: The 80-Year-Old Traveler

Imagine you are 60 years old. Your goal is to be traveling the world at 80. To do that, you need to be able to:

1. Walk 2 miles through an airport or cobblestone street (Aerobic Base).

2. Get up from a low chair or toilet unassisted (Lower body strength).

3. Carry a 20lb bag (Grip strength and stability).

If we backcast from those requirements, your prescription at age 60 isn't just staying active. It’s hitting specific metrics — like a 100lb goblet squat or a high-level VO2 max — to ensure that when the "age tax" is collected over the next 20 years, you still have enough physical currency left to enjoy your trip.

Let's look at a few more examples: 

• Let’s say you want to do active gardening in your 80’s. That implies you’ll need to be able to do a deep squat to weed, and you’ll need to be able to carry 10lb bags of mulch. At 60, we’ll train to goblet squat 35-50lbs for 10 reps, and we’ll work to hold a 2-minute plank for core / spinal stability.

• Or if you want to play on the floor with your grandkids, that will require you to be able to get up from the floor unassisted in your 80’s. When you're 60, we’ll train a Turkish get-up with a light weight, and we’ll do 25+ unbroken bodyweight squats.

• If you want to play golf at age 80, that will require you to be able to fully rotate your torso, and to maintain balance on uneven grass. Maybe that sounds easy today, but to stay on track for that, at age 60 you need to be able to do a single-leg stance (eyes closed) for 15+ seconds) and medicine ball rotational tosses.

• Last example: if you want to hike local trails at age 80, that implies navigating a 20% incline and staying stable on a rocky descent. At age 60, you need to be able to do step-ups holding dumbbells, and also do 10+ consecutive lunges per leg with perfect form.

Why the Buffer Matters: The Science of Overshooting

If you only train to the level you need now, you are essentially planning for failure.

1. Strength Reserve: Research into Sarcopenia (age-related muscle loss) shows that we lose roughly 1% of our strength per year after 60 [4]. If you want to lift 20lbs at 80, you need the capacity to lift roughly 35-40lbs at 60 to stay above the "frailty threshold."

2. The VO2 Max Safety Net: High cardiorespiratory fitness (measured with a VO2 Max test) is the single best predictor of longevity. A landmark study in JAMA Network Open found that "Elite" aerobic fitness was associated with an 80% reduction in mortality risk compared to those with low fitness [5]. By pushing your VO2 Max higher at 60, you ensure that even with the natural 10% decline per decade, you will still have the engine to be active at 80.

3. Stability as Life Insurance: Falls are a leading cause of injury-related death in the last decade. Backcasting balance means training Proprioception today. If you can't balance on one leg with your eyes closed for 10 seconds at 60, you are statistically at a much higher risk for a hip fracture at 80 [6].

Invest Today, Benefit Today & Tomorrow

Think of your physical training like a retirement account. You wouldn't save today without a plan, and then hope that will be enough when you are 80. Exercise is the same. We plan today so you can afford your lifestyle tomorrow.

Here’s the happy outcome in the short term: it turns out that training to be a strong and robust 80-year old makes you stronger and robust today as well. If you start this process when you’re 50, you’ll feel real increases in strength and energy today.

Identifying Your "Why"

A prescription without a "Why" is rarely followed. At Astride, we help members identify the specific activities they want to be doing in the last decade of life. (Right now, average life expectancy is about 82, so we work off of that.)

Research shows that purpose-driven physical activity is more sustainable than vague health goals. When your goal is "being able to hike with my grandkids," the deadlift stops being a chore and starts being an investment in your future independence. Research published in The Lancet emphasizes that maintaining physical function is the single most important factor in successful aging and preventing the transition to frailty [3].

From Vision to Protocol

Backcasting turns the gym from a place of vanity into a laboratory for your future freedom. You are literally buying back your future independence with every rep.

What’s your “Why”? If you had to pick one physical feat you want to be able to perform in your last decade, what would it be? Reply to this email and let us know. We’ll help you calculate the metrics you need to hit today to ensure the future you never has to say "I can't."

Train for the life you want to live.

References

1. Volpi E, Nazemi R, Fujita S. Muscle tissue changes with aging. Curr Opin Clin Nutr Metab Care. 2004;7(4):405-410.

2. Hawkins S, Wiswell R. Rate and mechanism of maximal oxygen consumption decline with aging: implications for exercise training. Sports Med. 2003;33(12):877-888.

3. Beard JR, Officer A, de Carvalho IA, et al. The World report on ageing and health: a policy framework for healthy ageing. Lancet. 2016;387(10033):2145-2154.

4. Keller K, Engelhardt M. Strength and muscle mass loss with aging process. Age and strength loss. Muscles Ligaments Tendons J. 2013;3(4):346-350.

5. Mandsager K, Harb S, Cremer P, Phelan D, Nissen SE, Jaber W. Association of cardiorespiratory fitness with long-term mortality among adults undergoing exercise treadmill testing. JAMA Netw Open. 2018;1(6):e183605.

6. Springer BA, Marin R, Cyhan T, Roberts H, Gill NW. Normative values for the unipedal stance test with eyes open and closed. J Geriatr Phys Ther. 2007;30(1):8-15.